Particle.news
Download on the App Store

May Flash PMIs Show Middle East War Driving Price Spikes and Services Slump

Supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted input costs while demand for consumer services falls, forcing central banks to weigh higher inflation against rising recession risk.

Overview

  • A coordinated set of flash PMI readings published in late May showed the euro‑area private sector contracted and services activity weakened sharply as energy and transport costs rose.
  • France, the UK, Germany and Australia recorded steep drops in services and falling new orders, with business confidence hitting multi‑month lows and job cuts spreading.
  • Manufacturing held up in countries such as the United States, Japan and India because firms built inventories and front‑loaded orders, but that support is fading as new orders slow.
  • Input‑price inflation accelerated to levels not seen since late 2022 and selling prices rose strongly, with Japan reporting its sharpest selling‑price increase in nearly 19 years.
  • The surveys signal a growing policy dilemma for central banks: tighter monetary action could curb inflation but also deepen an emerging downturn and further weaken employment.