Overview
- The Marquette Law School survey, released Aug. 26, found David Crowley ahead 49% to 44% among likely voters while the race is tied 44% to 44% when all registered voters are included.
- Independents lean toward Crowley in head‑to‑head measures yet large shares remain undecided with 30% of likely independents and 47% of registered independents saying they have not made up their minds.
- Crowley has lower name recognition with 38% of voters saying they haven’t heard enough to form an opinion while Tiffany posts higher favorability and higher unfavorability.
- Party unity and enthusiasm differ: 98% of likely Democrats back Crowley versus 91% of likely Republicans for Tiffany, and Republicans report higher voting enthusiasm even though reported certainty to vote is similar.
- The poll sets a post‑primary baseline for the fall campaign and shows the race will hinge on persuasion, turnout work, and how quickly voters form opinions as ads, events, and possible debates play out.