Marília Arraes Leads Senate Race as João Campos Tops Pernambuco Governor Poll

Overview

• The Real Time Big Data poll was conducted June 9–10, published June 11, interviewed 1,600 registered voters, has a two‑point margin of error, and is registered at the TSE under code PE-09426/2026.
• Marília Arraes (PDT) leads all three tested Senate scenarios in the poll, scoring roughly mid‑20s and holding at least a nine‑point edge over the third place candidate in each configuration.
• The contest for Pernambuco's second Senate seat remains open with Miguel Coelho (União Brasil) appearing in second in one scenario with a lead larger than the poll's margin of error, while other contenders such as Humberto Costa, Mendonça Filho and Túlio Gadêlha show varied support across scenarios.
• For governor the poll shows João Campos (PSB) ahead with about 45–46% to Raquel Lyra's roughly 40–41%, but recent Datafolha results and shifting numbers in Real Time indicate Lyra has gained momentum that has tightened the race.
• Campaign activity is amplifying those shifts because Lyra's boosted standing has made joint appearances a tactical asset for Senate hopefuls, a dynamic that could determine who wins the open second Senate seat and influence October outcomes.