Overview
- Oil futures reversed a two‑day selloff and rose on Wednesday after U.S. and Saudi strikes and reports of missile and drone launches renewed supply fears and the American Petroleum Institute reported a roughly 3.3 million‑barrel draw in U.S. crude stocks.
- Traders had driven prices sharply lower earlier in the week when Washington paused 13 nights of strikes and mediators put forward plans to manage the Strait of Hormuz, prompting hopes of de‑escalation that removed part of the war risk premium.
- Physical indicators remain strained as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait stays below normal and some Saudi loadings have been rerouted through Suez and other channels.
- Supply-side supports include reported OPEC+ plans to delay planned production increases from October and continued Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, while U.S. official EIA data is expected to confirm recent API figures.
- Consumers should not expect immediate relief at the pump because retail gasoline tracks futures with a lag; the next key triggers to watch are the EIA inventory report and any further military or diplomatic moves that affect tanker routes and producer policy.