Overview
- Prediction markets on Aug. 17 showed Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad putting about 70–75% odds on no change at the Sept. 15–16 meeting with Polymarket’s $33–35 million book pricing roughly a 24% chance of a 25bp hike and about a 1% chance of a cut.
- Market-implied tools such as CME FedWatch and fed funds futures put the odds of a September 25bp increase in the mid‑20s to low‑30s percent range, signalling that some traders still see inflation or labour strength as a reason for more tightening.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has trimmed forward guidance and shortened post-meeting remarks, which has made the three‑week‑delayed minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting a primary source of policy insight.
- Professional forecasters diverge: a Reuters poll and Goldman Sachs point to a likely September hold after softer July payrolls, retail sales and cooler inflation, while some officials and market participants continue to argue for additional hikes.
- Markets will look to incoming inflation and jobs data and to the July FOMC minutes released Wednesday for specific language on how many officials favoured a hike because those signals are likely to move Treasury yields and borrowing costs for households and businesses.