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Markets Reprice Fed Risk After Waller Signal and Strong Jobs Print

Waller’s conditional call to hold rates lowered near‑term hike odds while fresh inflation and payroll data now dictate whether the Fed tightens in September.

Overview

  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Sept. 3 he would support keeping the policy rate unchanged if upcoming data show inflation is easing, which pushed investors to scale back bets on a September hike.
  • Waller’s remarks drove a swift market response: major U.S. stock indexes rallied, 10‑year Treasury yields fell from recent highs, and Bitcoin jumped toward four‑month peaks as traders reduced immediate tightening odds.
  • Friday’s unexpectedly strong August payrolls report showing 162,000 jobs added reopened the chance of a September rate increase and sent stocks lower while short‑term Treasury yields rose.
  • Oil prices have stayed elevated because of renewed U.S.–Iran strikes and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping upside risk to inflation and complicating the Fed’s choice.
  • Market pricing now hinges on the August CPI release and the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting, with participants watching whether inflation and jobs data confirm Waller’s view or force a policy pivot.