Overview
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Sept. 3 he would support keeping the policy rate unchanged if upcoming data show inflation is easing, which pushed investors to scale back bets on a September hike.
- Waller’s remarks drove a swift market response: major U.S. stock indexes rallied, 10‑year Treasury yields fell from recent highs, and Bitcoin jumped toward four‑month peaks as traders reduced immediate tightening odds.
- Friday’s unexpectedly strong August payrolls report showing 162,000 jobs added reopened the chance of a September rate increase and sent stocks lower while short‑term Treasury yields rose.
- Oil prices have stayed elevated because of renewed U.S.–Iran strikes and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping upside risk to inflation and complicating the Fed’s choice.
- Market pricing now hinges on the August CPI release and the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting, with participants watching whether inflation and jobs data confirm Waller’s view or force a policy pivot.