Overview
- Crude prices dropped sharply and were trading in the low $70s after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased, a shift markets priced on Friday that cut the large wartime premium.
- The International Maritime Organization reported guarantees that let hundreds of ships exit the Persian Gulf and vessels are transiting with satellite signals on, signaling growing owner confidence.
- U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said roughly 20 million barrels moved through the waterway in a 24‑hour window, and shipping data showed Saudi Aramco restarted loading at Ras Tanura after nearly four months.
- The reopening remains fragile because a cargo vessel was struck near Oman and the IMO temporarily paused parts of its evacuation plan, while mine clearance, insurance costs and stranded‑vessel backlogs still constrain flows.
- Major banks and analysts have cut near‑term price forecasts and pushed forward expected full Gulf export recovery to around the end of July, but very low inventories mean prices can rebound quickly if security or talks falter.