Overview
- President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement with Iran would end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and markets responded with an immediate relief rally.
- Oil plunged roughly 4% on the report, which reduced near‑term inflation expectations and helped push the dollar lower and global equities higher.
- Traders quickly pared back expected Fed tightening for the year, with market pricing for cumulative tightening moving noticeably lower after the news.
- The Bank of Japan raised rates to a multi‑decade high as attention shifted to central bank policy, and gold recovered as investors cut short‑term rate‑hike bets.
- Implementation uncertainty remains because shippers and analysts say safe, insured shipping through the Strait could take weeks to restore, leaving the market reaction fragile and reversible.