Overview
- Rate‑cut hopes faded after Friday’s jobs report showed 115,000 new payrolls and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said a cut is not the only option and a hike is possible given recent price pressures.
- Official gauges show inflation above the 2% goal, with March CPI at 3.3% and PCE at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core.
- Fed funds futures and CME FedWatch now point to the first cut in 2027, which likely keeps credit and some mortgage costs elevated longer.
- The April 29 policy hold drew four dissents over forward guidance, signaling a split that could limit chair‑nominee Kevin Warsh’s case for easier policy.