Overview
- Goldman Sachs now expects the first Fed cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, citing energy costs that keep core inflation near 3%.
- Bank of America no longer sees cuts in 2026 and projects easing in the second half of 2027, with CME FedWatch showing low odds of cuts before then.
- The Federal Reserve’s April 29 meeting ended in an 8–4 split, with dissenting regional presidents urging language that kept the option of rate increases open.
- Official inflation gauges are running around 3% year over year on CPI and core PCE, while employers added 115,000 jobs in April, softening the case for near-term easing.
- PIMCO warns the Iran war’s energy shock could sustain price pressures and even force the Fed to raise rates rather than cut.