Overview
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET after recalling limited staff, prioritizing the report so Social Security can calculate the 2026 COLA.
- Consensus forecasts call for headline CPI up 0.4% month over month and 3.1% year over year, with core CPI seen rising 0.3% on the month and holding at 3.1% annually.
- Economists expect tariff pass‑through and higher gasoline to lift goods prices, while easing primary shelter costs could temper services inflation.
- Futures pricing points to a near‑certain 25‑basis‑point Fed cut next week, but analysts warn a CPI surprise could trigger outsized market moves given the broader data blackout.
- With routine price collection suspended, economists caution that October CPI may face reliability issues or publication challenges if the shutdown persists, even as trade risks loom before a Nov. 1 tariff deadline and a confirmed Trump–Xi meeting next week.