Overview
- Global equity benchmarks pushed to fresh highs this week as a broad wave of second-quarter results beat estimates and lifted investor confidence in tech and AI firms.
- Crude prices slipped from July peaks after U.S. officials and mediators reported progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a multi-day drop in oil that removed a near-term inflation risk.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell into the mid-4% range, which drove market pricing to lower the probability of a Federal Reserve September rate increase to about the high‑50s percent range.
- The rally has been uneven within tech: a high share of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 forecasts yet heavy AI capital spending spooked some names, with SpaceX’s first public quarterly filing showing $18.4 billion in Q2 capex and triggering a sharp share decline.
- Markets now face two watchpoints: completion of the Hormuz negotiations, which remain developing, and upcoming U.S. economic data and Fed remarks that will determine whether lower oil and yields sustain the risk-on move.