Overview
- Traders sharply reduced the chance of a September Federal Reserve rate increase to about 30% on Monday after a run of softer U.S. jobs, retail sales and inflation readings.
- The U.S. dollar slid to roughly a two-month low as rate-hike odds fell, which helped many equities and gave a lift to other major currencies.
- Stalled U.S.-Iran talks have left tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halted and kept Brent crude near $88–$89 a barrel, a level that raises the risk of higher headline inflation and pressure on energy-importing currencies.
- Investors are watching the FOMC July minutes due this week and quarterly results from big U.S. retailers as immediate tests of consumer strength that could further change Fed expectations.
- Flows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have continued for five weeks but Ether remains range-bound around $1,850–$1,900, showing steady institutional demand without a clear price breakout.