Overview
- A much stronger‑than‑expected May jobs report last week sent markets scrambling to reprice policy, with futures and CME FedWatch pushing the chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December to roughly 70 percent and lifting short‑term Treasury yields.
- News that Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks on Monday reduced a spike in oil and helped Asian and Indian markets stage a tentative rebound as investors bought beaten tech and semiconductor names.
- Despite the ceasefire, yields remain elevated with the U.S. 10‑year above 4.5 percent, keeping pressure on long‑duration tech stocks, Bitcoin and other risk assets and leaving markets focused on Wednesday’s U.S. CPI print and upcoming central bank decisions.
- Emerging‑market authorities moved to limit spillovers: the Reserve Bank of India held its repo rate at 5.25 percent and announced dollar swap and hedging measures to attract inflows, while Bank Indonesia and the finance ministry pledged coordinated liquidity and yield support as the rupiah hit fresh lows.
- Investors face a narrow path where higher energy costs from the Middle East and the prospect of more global rate hikes could lift imported inflation and borrowing costs, so attention will fall on U.S. inflation data, the ECB meeting and Indonesia’s June policy response.