Overview
- Prediction and derivatives markets assign a very high probability to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan increase on Dec. 19 as traders pre‑position.
- Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 area ahead of the meeting, with data showing rising exchange inflows and softer funding rates that signal early de‑risking.
- Historical episodes since 2024 show BOJ hikes coinciding with Bitcoin drawdowns of roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.
- Macro‑focused analysts caution that if higher Japanese rates tighten global liquidity, Bitcoin could slide toward or below $70,000, framing this as a risk scenario rather than a base case.
- Other market watchers argue much of the move may be priced, with the yen’s post‑decision strength seen as the key driver of whether selling persists or a relief bounce emerges.