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Markets Brace for April CPI as Energy Shock Drives Inflation Fears

A hot reading could dim hopes of rate cuts this year.

Overview

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reports April CPI Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show about a 0.6% monthly rise.
  • Gas prices have jumped more than 50% since late February and now average above $4.50 a gallon as conflict in the Middle East disrupted key oil flows.
  • March data showed energy drove most of the inflation jump, with the energy index up 10.9% and gasoline up 21.2%, and forecasters say higher fuel costs are now lifting other prices like airfares.
  • A University of Michigan survey found consumer sentiment at a fresh record low, even as leaders at Walmart and United Airlines say overall spending has held up better than headlines suggest.
  • Retail sales due Thursday will help show how higher fuel costs are shaping demand, and a firm inflation read would make it less likely the Federal Reserve cuts rates this year.