Marathon Petroleum Rallies After Q4 Beat as Record Refining Margins Spur Analyst Upgrades

Overview

• Shares climbed roughly 5% this week as multiple firms raised price targets to $210–$225 and reiterated Buy-leaning views.
• Q4 2025 adjusted EPS reached $4.07 versus a $3.01 consensus, with quarterly revenue of about $33.4 billion.
• Adjusted EBITDA was $3.5 billion in Q4 and nearly $12 billion for full-year 2025.
• The Refining & Marketing unit generated $1.997 billion in Q4 EBITDA with a $18.65 per barrel margin, 95% utilization, $5.70 per barrel costs, and capture rates above 100%.
• Midstream delivered $1.7 billion in Q4 EBITDA on higher throughputs and recent acquisitions, while Marathon returned $1.3 billion in Q4 and $4.5 billion in 2025, ending the year with $3.7 billion in cash and no borrowings on its $5 billion revolver.