Overview
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Wednesday that 47 percent of service firms and 44 percent of manufacturers in its district that paid 2025 tariffs say they still plan further tariff-driven price increases, with roughly 30 percent of service firms and about 40 percent of manufacturers expecting hikes within six months.
- Firms told the New York Fed they delay full passthrough mainly because fixed-price contracts block immediate price changes and because many use a gradual "trickle up" strategy to avoid shocking customers.
- Key policy moves after the tariffs include the Supreme Court’s February ruling that invalidated the IEEPA-based levies and U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s April refund portal, while the administration is pursuing other legal pathways such as Section 122 and Section 301 actions.
- Research cited by the Fed and other analysts shows U.S. companies and households bore roughly nine tenths of the 2025 tariff burden, and the continuing, phased passthrough is lifting inflation expectations and complicating the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring inflation back to target.
- Watch for the pace of CBP refunds, outcomes from USTR hearings and any new levies because those developments will shape whether firms accelerate, pause or reverse planned price increases and how quickly consumers feel further cost pressure.