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Mantic Raises $25 Million to Scale AI That Outscored Human Forecasters

Radical Ventures led the seed round to fund Mantic’s calibrated, human-style forecasting as the company pursues enterprise and government customers.

Overview

  • Mantic raised $25 million in a seed round led by Radical Ventures on Friday, Sept. 18, 2026, with participation from Microsoft’s M12, Balderton Capital and other investors.
  • The London startup drew attention after its forecasting AI outscored every human entrant in the summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, with only one other bot, laertes, finishing ahead of Mantic.
  • Mantic trains frontier AI models for 'judgmental forecasting' by fine-tuning, prompting and backtesting them on historical events so the systems produce better-calibrated probability estimates.
  • Radical partner Aaron Rosenberg has joined Mantic’s board and the company says hedge funds, trading firms, corporations and government agencies have shown interest and completed early integrations, though it has not named customers.
  • Investors expect the funding to speed product development and sales, and the market should watch for named clients, independent validation of real-world performance and any disclosed valuation as proof of commercial traction.