Overview
- Two major polls released this week show conflicting, narrow leads in the contest, with The New York Times survey giving Graham Platner a slight edge and a Fox News survey showing Susan Collins ahead, leaving the race effectively a toss-up.
- Polls find sharp demographic divides: Platner leads by large margins with women, young voters and college-educated voters, while he trails Collins by more than 20 points with voters who do not have a college degree.
- Platner’s campaign has been weighed down by intense negative coverage of past controversies, including questions about a contentious tattoo and allegations reported by former partners, which advisers say national negative advertising has amplified.
- National groups from both parties have poured money into the race and Democrats are publicly split over whether to defend Platner’s nomination or seek a replacement before Maine’s July 13 deadline.
- Maine’s ranked-choice voting system and a large independent electorate make second-choice votes and retail campaigning crucial, and advisers point to extensive town‑hall outreach as the pathway Platner will use to try to close his working‑class deficits.