Overview
- CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Friday that polling and a Marquette Law School survey show MAGA favorability among non‑college voters dropped from +6 in October 2024 to -22 now.
- Enten’s aggregate of polls also shows President Trump’s net standing with non‑college voters swung from a 13‑point advantage in 2024 to roughly -19 today.
- The same polls move the generic House preference among non‑college voters from Republicans +13 in 2024 to Democrats about +1 in current averages.
- Enten warned that this erosion of Trump’s core bloc threatens Republican House incumbents because districts that flipped in 2024 are concentrated among non‑college voters.
- Polls can change with timing and samples, but if these trends hold they could shift which districts are competitive and push lawmakers to focus more on pocketbook issues that matter to working‑class voters.