Overview
- An anonymous Polymarket account created in late December turned roughly $34,000 into more than $400,000 by betting Maduro would be out by January, with the last trade minutes before the U.S. operation.
- At least 30 House Democrats now back Torres’s Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, and Rep. Dina Titus has pressed Polymarket’s CEO for details on anti–insider trading safeguards.
- Kalshi says it already bans insider trading and supports measures to restrict government employees from trading on policy-related markets, contrasting its stance with activity on unregulated venues.
- Regulatory gaps and enforcement hurdles persist as the CFTC’s authority and resources are limited, users can trade pseudonymously or offshore, and state regulators—including New York—pursue challenges.
- Polymarket has faced backlash over a Venezuela ‘invasion’ market after stating the Maduro raid did not meet its criteria for a U.S. operation intended to establish control, prompting payout disputes.