Overview
- The sun erupted with an M6.9 flare from active region 4513 that peaked Tuesday and launched a coronal mass ejection now confirmed en route to Earth.
- Early NASA WSA-ENLIL+Cone model runs show a probable glancing CME arrival around Friday, Aug. 28 with about ±7 hours uncertainty for exact timing.
- The flare already caused a confirmed R2 moderate HF radio blackout over parts of Africa, Europe and the Arctic that disrupted high-frequency communications.
- A positive-polarity coronal-hole high-speed solar-wind stream is expected to begin affecting Earth around Aug. 27 and could amplify geomagnetic effects if it overlaps with the CME and the CME carries a southward magnetic field.
- Forecasters say the most likely outcome is a limited, glancing encounter that could produce a minor geomagnetic storm and localized auroras in higher latitudes, while post-arrival magnetic-field measurements will determine the actual impact.