Lula to Submit Messias STF Nomination as Opposition Targets Veto and Senate Power

Overview

• With Congress returning in early February, Lula plans to formally send Advocate‑General Jorge Messias’s nomination to the Supreme Federal Court after delaying the move late last year.
• Messias has held outreach with roughly 70 of 81 senators, and allies describe a more favorable climate than in 2025, with MDB, PSD and Republicanos figures viewed as inclined to support him.
• The PL has announced it will vote against confirmation, setting up a rare test for a presidential court nominee in the Senate and a public gauge of the government’s strength.
• Bolsonarist leaders are organizing a five‑front offensive for 2026, prioritizing a February attempt to overturn Lula’s veto of the Dosimetria bill that would recalibrate sentences from the January 8 cases.
• To counter opposition influence, the Planalto is encouraging prominent ministers and allies to run for the Senate in states such as São Paulo, Paraná, Bahia and Mato Grosso, a push government leaders say is vital for governability.