Overview
- A study published Sunday by economist Marcos Mendes and reported by Poder360 and Gazeta do Povo found R$176.7–176.9 billion—about 94%—of the R$187.2 billion electoral package is structured to fall outside the arcabouço fiscal spending-growth limit.
- The same analysis shows R$118.7 billion, roughly 63% of the package, is also excluded from the government’s primary-surplus calculation and therefore does not count toward deficit targets.
- Key methods used to keep costs off the rule include Treasury funds routed to state banks for credit lines, use of public funds as loan guarantees, tax renunciations and extraordinary credits or subsidies.
- Analysts quoted in the coverage warn these off-framework measures still add to public accounts and are likely to push Brazil’s gross debt above the current ~80% of GDP toward the low-to-mid 80s or higher in 2026–27, which would raise borrowing costs and complicate macroeconomic management.
- The R$187.2 billion total is more than double the recorded election-year spending in 2022, and critics say the growing web of exceptions erodes the 2023 fiscal framework’s credibility and reduces transparency about the true fiscal impact.