Overview
- The Workers’ Party formally invested Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate at a São Paulo convention on Sunday, and he will face Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the October runoff.
- Lula has made sovereignty the centerpiece of his campaign after two waves of U.S. tariffs in July, and Brasília recently refused visas to two U.S. representatives who wanted to discuss electoral integrity.
- A Datafolha poll gives Lula a narrow second-round lead at 48% versus 43% for Flavio Bolsonaro, reflecting a tight, highly polarized contest similar to the 2022 margin.
- Both campaigns face legal risks: Brazilian authorities are probing financing of a Jair Bolsonaro film tied to Flavio Bolsonaro and opened a new inquiry this week into Lula’s son, known as Lulinha.
- Voters’ top concerns — violent crime, the rising cost of living, and fiscal deficits — leave Lula vulnerable on public security even as the economy posts growth and record employment, and the campaign could intensify diplomatic tensions and turnout dynamics before October.