Overview
- Lula formally launched his re-election campaign Sunday at the Workers' Party convention in São Paulo, stressing national sovereignty and showcasing his fitness at age 80.
- A recent Datafolha poll shows Lula ahead 48% to 43% in a hypothetical second round, leaving the contest competitive as both sides try to sway undecided voters.
- In July the U.S. imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian goods, a trade move Lula has used to argue that external pressure justifies his sovereignty message.
- Probes are clouding both campaigns: investigators opened a corruption influence-peddling inquiry into Lula’s son Lulinha this week, and prosecutors are examining allegations that Flavio Bolsonaro sought funds from a banker accused of fraud.
- The outcome will hinge on voters troubled by crime, inflation and fiscal strain, and it could affect trade and regional diplomacy as foreign leaders publicly align with Bolsonaro and tariffs hit exporters.