Overview
- A Quaest survey of 2,004 people conducted Aug. 10–13 gives Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43% versus Flávio Bolsonaro 40% in a hypothetical second round and 38% to 31% in a first round, with a two-point margin of error.
- Both campaigns launched their national bids this weekend with contrasting messages: Lula foregrounded his life story and softened economic proposals to court centrists, while Flávio emphasized crime-fighting, judiciary reform and a tougher security line.
- Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate and published a program focused on combating organized crime, cutting public spending and a pragmatic foreign policy toward the United States, Argentina and Israel.
- High rejection rates for both front-runners — about 54% for Flávio and 52% for Lula in the poll — make transfers from smaller right‑wing candidates and undecided voters pivotal for any runoff outcome.
- The Lula administration has taken steps it says respond to foreign interference, including threatening reciprocal tariffs, delaying approval of a U.S. ambassador and blocking two U.S. officials from studying Brazil’s electronic voting system.