Overview
- Lula and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro launched their campaigns on Sunday, Aug. 16, holding rallies in Sao Bernardo do Campo and on Copacabana beach that leaned on each man’s political roots and images.
- Polls show a close contest headed for a runoff with a Quaest survey giving Lula 43 percent to Bolsonaro’s 40 percent in a hypothetical second round.
- Lula’s campaign is focused on reclaiming workers after formal employment and union ties fell, with formal jobs dropping to roughly 38.2 percent of the workforce since 2010 and unionization rates also declining.
- Both candidates are explicitly courting women voters and pledging steps to address rising gender violence after nearly 400 femicides were recorded in Q1 2026.
- Foreign endorsements and recent diplomatic strains are feeding polarization and are likely to shape campaign messaging and turnout as both sides prepare targeted ads to win undecided gig-economy and swing voters.