Overview
- Both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro formally opened their presidential campaigns on Sunday with mass rallies in São Bernardo do Campo and Copacabana respectively, kicking off a contest that will be decided on October 4.
- A Quaest poll published on Friday showed a narrow second‑round result with Lula at 43% and Flávio at 40%, a margin inside the survey’s two‑point error that signals a technically tied runoff.
- Judicial pressure is mounting on both camps: the Supreme Court authorized investigations into Lula’s son Fábio Luís ‘Lulinha’ for possible influence peddling, and reporting and police probes are examining Flávio’s contacts with jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro over alleged funding for the film Dark Horse.
- U.S. actions under President Trump — including tariffs on Brazilian goods, expedited ambassadorial pressure and attempts to review Brazil’s voting system — have been framed by Lula as foreign interference and have become a central campaign issue.
- High rejection rates for both front‑runners, weak support for smaller right‑leaning challengers, and a 4% pool of undecided voters concentrated among women and middle‑class independents mean swing voters and coalition flows will likely decide a close second round.