Overview
- Both candidates formally opened their campaigns on Sunday in São Bernardo do Campo and Copacabana, beginning Brazil’s 45-day run to the first-round vote on Oct. 4.
- A Quaest poll published Aug. 14 puts Lula at 43% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% in a hypothetical runoff with a 2-point margin of error and about 4% undecided voters.
- Security is the central battleground with Lula proposing to target criminal finances and expand social programs while Flávio promises tougher, punitive measures and to label major gangs as terrorists.
- The Lula government has publicly accused the U.S. of electoral interference through tariffs, ambassadorial pressure and proposed checks on Brazil’s electronic vote system, prompting reciprocal diplomatic steps.
- The race is shaped by the absence of Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible and under house arrest, and by active investigations touching both camps including Flávio’s links to banker Daniel Vorcaro and probes into Lula’s son.