Overview
- The Lowy Institute report released Monday finds a direct strike threat to Australia is "real and growing," driven mainly by missiles launched from ships, submarines and intermediate‑range systems.
- The analysis says China can already threaten northern Australia with DF‑26 missiles fired from South China Sea outposts and notes US assessments that a DF‑27 would have a roughly 5,000–8,000 km range.
- Lowy forecasts China’s nuclear‑powered attack submarine fleet could expand to about 25 SSNs by 2035, supported by faster production at shipyards such as Bohai, which would allow sustained patrols and strike patrol rotations.
- The report highlights nearer‑term non‑kinetic risks that could hit Australians’ lives and trade: cyberattacks on infrastructure, cutting undersea communications cables that carry internet and financial traffic, and disruption of shipping through choke points in the Indonesian archipelago.
- The authors stress they assess capability not intent and warn that a new long‑range bomber or Chinese access to Pacific island bases would rapidly raise the threat, prompting recommendations for stronger deterrence, deeper Pacific diplomacy and AUKUS‑era capability planning.