Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad low in the Bay of Campeche that has produced showers and thunderstorms and has low formation odds that rose from about 10% to near 20% in short-term updates.
- Forecasters expect the disturbance to move inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday and to weaken as it does before any possible return to the Gulf.
- If the system survives and moves back over water on Tuesday and Wednesday, models show its tropical moisture could interact with a frontal boundary and focus heavy rain over Southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and parts of Southeast Texas.
- Forecast guidance and local offices project common totals of 1–3 inches with pockets of 3–5 inches and isolated amounts up to 8–9 inches in some spots, and the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted an elevated flood risk for parts of Southeast Texas.
- Even without tropical development, the low is already creating fresh to strong southeast winds and rough seas across southern and western Gulf waters, and meteorologists note that isolated Gulf disturbances can produce significant local impacts despite a generally quieter seasonal outlook from Colorado State University.