Overview
- Long-term U.S. yields have climbed to multi-year highs this week, with the 30-year Treasury holding above 5% for its longest stretch since 2007 and the Bloomberg Global Treasury Index yield at levels not seen since 2008.
- Federal debt held by the public exceeded 100% of GDP as of March 31, 2026, reaching about $31.27 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office projects that figure will rise to roughly 108% of GDP by 2030.
- Analysts point to three main forces behind the selloff: higher oil after renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities, persistent inflation and rising real yields, and large volumes of long-dated, high-yield corporate bonds linked to AI data-center spending that compete with Treasuries.
- The rise in sovereign yields is already translating into higher consumer costs, with average 30-year mortgage rates climbing toward the mid-6% range and broader borrowing costs for firms increasing as markets reprice the outlook for Fed policy.
- The shock echoes 2007–08 dynamics: government debt and long-dated supply have surged since 2007, global bond benchmarks are at crisis-era highs, and central banks face tests of credibility as markets react to near-term inflation signals and policy communication.