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Long-Term U.S. Yields Reach Multi-Year Highs as Mortgage Rates Jump

Energy-driven inflation linked to the Iran conflict has pushed long-dated Treasury yields higher and led markets to pull back bets on year-end Fed cuts.

Overview

  • The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to levels last seen in 2007 this week, and the 10-year yield moved toward the mid-4% range as investors grew more worried about inflation risks.
  • Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.51% on Thursday, the highest in nearly nine months, raising monthly costs for new homebuyers and refinancers.
  • Traders have shifted expectations away from year-end rate cuts and are pricing a meaningful chance of future Fed tightening according to CME Group’s FedWatch data.
  • Heavy trading in Treasury futures and large block trades amplified the move higher in yields, a pattern that sent rising borrowing costs through mortgage, auto and credit-card markets.
  • The selloff has been global, touching European and Japanese bond markets and weakening mortgage demand in the U.S. as more buyers seek adjustable-rate loans and affordability declines.