Overview
- Reporting on Sept. 12 highlighted a nearly 156-year valuation metric that places the possibility of a market crash squarely on the table by showing unusually stretched equity valuations.
- Major U.S. indexes have posted strong gains this year under President Trump, driven by AI investment, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and record share buybacks tied to prior tax cuts.
- Several concrete near-term stressors raise volatility risk: oil trading above $100 per barrel, renewed tariff moves, high outstanding margin debt and long-term Treasury yields at multi-year highs that make Fed rate hikes likelier.
- The Nov. 3 midterm elections could change control of one or both chambers of Congress, which would complicate passing legislation and debt-ceiling negotiations and add political uncertainty for markets.
- Historical evidence cited by analysts recommends staying invested with broad diversification and dollar-cost averaging, since long-term returns have recovered strongly after past crashes and timing exits is risky.