Overview
- Recent public polls published June 24–26 show Likud as the largest party with about 23–24 Knesset seats while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! has climbed into second place with roughly 20–22 seats and the Bennett‑Lapid Beyachad list has fallen into the mid‑teens.
- Surveys tested alternative alliances and found a united Eisenkot‑led slate would jump to roughly mid‑30s of seats, making him the main challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in some matchups.
- Poll scenarios indicate a split between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid would sharply damage Yesh Atid — dropping Lapid near the threshold to about four seats while leaving Bennett with roughly 14 seats.
- Across multiple polls neither the Netanyahu‑aligned bloc nor the opposition reaches the 61‑seat majority without the roughly ten seats held by Arab parties, and head‑to‑head prime minister polls show mixed results between Netanyahu, Eisenkot and Bennett.
- Security fallout from the Iran war, disputes over the ultra‑Orthodox draft and campaign tactics have shifted voter loyalties, strengthening right‑wing figures and making post‑election bargaining and possible mergers the decisive factors before the expected October ballot.