Overview
- The Weather Prediction Center upgraded the overnight flash‑flood threat to likely early Friday, warning 3 to 6+ inch additional totals across northeast Kansas, far southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri and southern Iowa with locally life‑threatening inundation possible.
- The Storm Prediction Center maintained multiple tornado and severe thunderstorm watches across the northern Plains as clusters and supercells continued to produce very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornado risk.
- Forecasters say mesoscale convective vortices, remnant outflow boundaries and abundant Gulf moisture are promoting backbuilding and training storms that yield very high rainfall rates commonly between 1.5 and 2.5 inches per hour.
- Forecast confidence is limited by small‑scale timing, morning cloud cover and variable soil moisture, so impacts will be highly localized and local NWS offices and River Forecast Centers are the primary sources for watches and flood warnings.
- The multi‑day outbreak began along a stalled boundary and is expected to gradually weaken as it moves east, but pockets of heavy rain, localized flash flooding and isolated severe storms may continue until mesoscale boundaries and MCVs lose organization.