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Lemonade’s April 29 Earnings Loom as Test of Profit Path

Adjusted EBITDA progress will signal whether guidance for Q4 2026 breakeven remains on track.

Overview

  • Lemonade guides in-force premium, the total active premium base, to rise about 32% in the first quarter.
  • In-force premium growth has accelerated for seven straight quarters, reaching 31% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
  • The company’s loss ratio has been falling, meaning it is paying out a smaller share of premiums in claims as underwriting improves.
  • Lemonade still posts net losses and negative adjusted EBITDA, with targets for positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026 and net income in 2027.
  • Analysts flag adjusted EBITDA as the key first‑quarter metric to watch because it shows if the year‑end profitability goal is realistic in a market where stock moves can reflect broader volatility.