Overview
- A classified Office of Net Assessment briefing, reported by the New York Times and covered widely on Dec. 11, concludes U.S. forces would most likely be defeated if they intervened in a Taiwan conflict.
- Pentagon war games described in the brief show U.S. carriers, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, routinely destroyed or unable to survive, with fighter squadrons and satellites crippled early.
- The document cites an estimated stockpile of roughly 600 Chinese hypersonic weapons that are difficult to intercept and designed to target high‑value U.S. assets.
- Analysts warn the U.S. lacks the industrial surge capacity and resilient supply chains needed for a prolonged high‑end fight, with key munitions and production rates falling short.
- Cyber vulnerabilities are highlighted, including reports that the China‑linked Volt Typhoon group placed malware in infrastructure supporting U.S. bases, even as the Navy plans additional Ford‑class carriers.