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Leaked MLB Salary Cap Numbers Escalate Labor Standoff, Heighten 2027 Lockout Risk

The leak spotlights a plan players reject, raising doubts about feasibility.

Overview

  • A widely circulated report pegged an early hard cap near $260–$280 million with a salary floor around $140–$160 million, per Jon Heyman via Underdog MLB.
  • Payroll data show 11 teams sit below $140 million and 13 below $160 million, with examples like Miami and Cleveland combining for just $155 million in 2026 obligations.
  • Analysts argue revenue sharing cannot bridge gaps of this size, citing Forbes estimates that the Marlins generated $317 million in 2024 revenue while spending $86 million on player costs.
  • Commentary contends the proposal primarily serves cost control by curbing top-end contracts and high spenders such as the Dodgers, rather than delivering true competitive balance.
  • With the CBA expiring in December 2026, coverage projects fraught talks as the MLBPA rejects any cap and voices like Charles Barkley urge players to weigh leverage while endorsing a floor-and-ceiling framework.