Particle.news
Download on the App Store
6 ARTICLES
·
last wk.

Leading Models Raise Odds of a Significant El Niño by Late Summer

Forecasters highlight lingering spring-season uncertainty as official NOAA and WMO outlooks show lower probabilities and call for close monitoring in the coming weeks.

Young men inspect a car destroyed by flood waters in an area heavily affected by torrential rains, near Mai Mahiu, Kenya on April 29, 2024. An El Niño event that year made the storms worse than they would normally have been.
Image
Image
Image

Overview

  • ECMWF’s latest runs boost the chance of a strong event to around 80% by late summer and near 98% for at least a moderate El Niño, with a NOAA long‑range model showing similar signals.
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continues to give roughly a 50%–60% chance of development later this year, while WMO guidance shows odds rising to about 40% during May–July.
  • Recent westerly wind bursts along the equator and unusually warm subsurface waters — near 6 degrees above normal in parts of the central Pacific — are fueling the shift away from La Niña.
  • If El Niño takes hold, scientists expect a higher likelihood of record or near‑record global warmth into 2026–27, typically quieter Atlantic hurricanes and a more active eastern Pacific, though impacts can vary.
  • Experts stress the spring predictability barrier and note past false starts like 2014, with the next four to six weeks viewed as critical for confirming the atmosphere–ocean coupling.