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Lawmakers Amplify Debunked 82% Miscarriage Claim From Fauci Texts

The calculation is a math error in 2021 NEJM data that does not change the scientific consensus that COVID-19 vaccination is not linked to higher miscarriage risk.

Overview

  • Sen. Ted Cruz promoted the 82% figure Wednesday after Republican senators released thousands of pages of Anthony Fauci’s texts and diary entries, prompting wide social and political attention.
  • The 82% number was produced by a faulty calculation that removed third‑trimester vaccinated live births from the denominator while still counting early pregnancy losses, which experts say misrepresents risk.
  • Fauci’s January 2021 messages raised a theoretical concern about fever and cytokine responses after a second dose but also noted that more than 10,000 vaccinated pregnant people had shown “no issues” at that time.
  • Large studies, professional bodies and a 2024 meta‑analysis of hundreds of studies found no evidence that COVID‑19 vaccination increases miscarriage risk, and groups such as the CDC and ACOG continue to recommend vaccination in pregnancy.
  • The resurfaced claim has been pushed by conservative outlets and politicians and met with swift corrections and expert rebukes, heightening partisan scrutiny, calls for probes, and the risk that misleading statistics will erode pregnant people’s trust in public health guidance.