Overview
- A cluster of national surveys published in late May show President Trump’s approval sinking into the mid‑to‑high 30s with some polls as low as the low 30s, a pattern reported by multiple independent institutes rather than a single outlier.
- Emerson College’s May 24–25 likely‑voter survey found Trump at 39% approval and recorded an almost even Republican primary contest with Vice President JD Vance at 36% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35%.
- Early Democratic primary polling in the same Emerson series remains fragmented, with Pete Buttigieg leading modestly and a large undecided share that leaves the Democratic field unconsolidated for 2028.
- A UnidosUS‑commissioned poll of Texas Latino voters conducted in late April to mid‑May found 20% of 2024 Trump‑supporting Latinos now regret that vote and that Texas Latinos would favor Democrats by a wide margin in hypothetical 2026 House contests.
- Political strategists say the polling creates a risk for Republicans in the November midterms and has prompted a tactical shift toward tangible economic themes such as housing affordability tax measures and cost‑of‑living messages aimed at independents and vulnerable districts.