Overview
- National statistics show an abrupt rise in deaths in the week of 22–28 June when about 23,900 people died, roughly 32% above the 2022–2025 weekly average.
- The Robert Koch Institute has raised its model-based estimate of heat‑related deaths to about 6,830 through 5 July while stressing model limits and uncertainty.
- A parallel raw excess calculation based on Destatis data gives a larger figure (around 13,100), highlighting methodological differences between raw excess counts and RKI’s temperature‑linked attribution.
- Heat is rarely listed as a cause on death certificates so agencies estimate heat effects by comparing observed deaths to baseline expectations and linking mortality to temperature patterns, a process that can undercount day‑level spikes and be affected by reporting delays.
- An economic analysis estimates at least €6.3 billion in short‑term losses from the two‑week heat period, and experts warn the event exposes gaps in health preparedness as hotter, longer heat episodes become more common.