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5h ago

Late CME Arrival Lowers Aurora Forecast to G1–G2 Tonight

NOAA now expects a moderate geomagnetic storm due to the slower‑than‑forecast impact.

The aurora borealis in Monroe County as a strong geomagnetic storm from solar activity pushed the northern lights unusually far south on November 12, 2025, in Bloomington, Indiana.
The aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, over the frozen Prosperous Lake near Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada, March 13, 2026.
A view line map from the Space Weather Prediction Center showing where there northern lights may be visible on March 31.

Overview

  • NOAA, which updated its guidance Wednesday after the coronal mass ejection arrived in daylight, now targets peak activity for Wednesday night into early Thursday at G1–G2 levels.
  • The latest view line places parts of roughly 15–20 northern U.S. states in range, including sections of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
  • The UK Met Office issued an alert that aurora could reach northern England and Scotland, but it flagged low confidence because the CME may only deliver a glancing blow.
  • Forecasters say visibility hinges on real‑time solar‑wind conditions—especially a sustained southward Bz that opens Earth’s magnetic field—as well as clouds, light pollution and a bright full moon that can wash out faint glows.
  • The storm stems from an X‑class solar flare on March 30 that launched the CME and caused brief radio blackouts, and viewers are urged to monitor NOAA’s live aurora dashboard for shifting timing and strength.