Overview
- The peer-reviewed ISGlobal analysis in The Lancet Global Health models recent donor pullbacks across 93 countries, projecting 9.4 million excess deaths under ongoing trends and 22.6 million under a steeper cut, including 5.4 million children under five by 2030.
- The study links 2002–2021 official development assistance to sharp mortality declines, including a 39% drop in under‑five deaths and a 70% reduction in HIV/AIDS deaths, with major gains against malaria and nutritional deficiencies.
- Major donors reduced aid in 2024 for the first time in nearly three decades, and OECD tracking points to further declines in 2025, with drops of up to 18% compared with 2024.
- Recent policy shifts include the 2025 dismantling of USAID, with earlier ISGlobal work estimating more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030 under a near‑total stoppage of its programmes.
- WHO has warned that health systems face severe strain from funding retrenchment, while donors defend restructuring and some governments explore limited bilateral alternatives and proposed health allocations.