Overview
- Under business as usual, the study estimates about 4.5 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost in 2040, versus 2.6 million in the most optimistic scenario and 2.1 million in 2016.
- Production emerges as the largest stage of harm, with global warming and fine particulate pollution each contributing roughly one third of the projected health burden.
- The plastics lifecycle accounts for about 4.5% of human-made greenhouse gas emissions—more than aviation’s share—and is a significant source of airborne particulates.
- The authors and outside experts say totals likely understate risks because micro- and nanoplastic effects and use-phase chemical exposures were excluded and data remain sparse, especially in low-income regions.
- Researchers urge coordinated policy as global plastic consumption is projected to nearly triple by 2060 under current measures, noting the analysis does not weigh plastics’ public-health benefits.