Overview
- The global modelling study in The Lancet finds high‑income countries are on track to meet the elimination threshold under current programs by 2048.
- Without faster rollout of HPV shots and cervical screening, the model projects only small declines in low‑ and middle‑income countries and a widening gap from roughly threefold to twelvefold by 2105.
- Meeting the World Health Organization’s targets for 90% girls vaccinated, 70% women screened, and 90% treated could avert about 37 million cases over the next century.
- The model notes population benefits arrive slowly, often taking 20 to 40 years to show up, which can make measured inequalities look worse before they improve.
- India’s new national HPV campaign illustrates delivery hurdles, with government data showing only 10.63% of eligible 14‑year‑old girls vaccinated by April 10, while Australia stays on track for elimination by 2035 despite recent dips in coverage and persistent gaps for Indigenous women.