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4h ago

Lake Powell Runoff Forecast Slashed to 22% of Normal After Record March Heat

The plunge in expected inflows increases the chance that Glen Canyon Dam nears its no-power threshold.

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PAGE, ARIZONA - JULY 10: The sun rises over Lake Powell in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area on July 10, 2025 in Page, Arizona. Lake Powell, a critical Colorado River reservoir, is only at a third of its capacity as drought conditions in the Southwest worsen. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

Overview

  • Federal forecasters now project about 1.4 million acre-feet of April–July inflow to Lake Powell, or roughly 22% of normal.
  • The new outlook carries about a 30% chance that spring runoff ties or falls below the 2002 record low, according to the CBRFC.
  • Record warmth in March sped up melt across an already thin mountain snowpack in Colorado and Utah, sharply cutting runoff that feeds the river.
  • With talks among the seven basin states still stalled, the Interior Department is weighing federal options and short-term releases from upstream reservoirs to stabilize operations.
  • A draft plan would cut Central Arizona Project deliveries to Phoenix and Tucson to protect Lake Powell, which CAP leaders call devastating and say they may challenge.